Metrics
Tracking
What to measure, when, and what it means
Apple Watch Accuracy
~95%
Heart Rate
Reliable — use for effort monitoring
±30–50%
Lifting Calories
Overestimates — HR spikes look like cardio to the algorithm
±15–25%
Cycling Calories
More accurate. Use 3-week weight trend as true calibration.
Tracking Frequency
Body weight (first thing, after bathroom)
Same time daily for accuracy
Log meals in tracker app
Use Cronometer or MyFitnessPal
Mark workout completed
Check off training log
Rate energy level 1–10
Quick subjective note
Note sleep quality
Hours + quality score
What Your Numbers Mean
Weight down 0.5–1.5 lbs/week
GREENIdeal fat loss rate
Stay the course
Weight down > 2 lbs/week
YELLOWToo aggressive, muscle loss risk
Add 150–200 kcal on training days
Weight flat for 2 weeks
YELLOWAdaptation or water retention
Reduce non-training day carbs by 25g
Weight flat for 3+ weeks
REDCalorie adaptation
Take 1-week diet break at maintenance
Strength dropping 10%+
REDExcessive deficit or under-recovery
Increase calories + review sleep
Energy very low, brain fog
YELLOWPossibly under-fueling
Add one refeed day (2,800 kcal, high carb)
Weight gaining slowly
GREENIn Phase 2 bulk — expected
Monitor rate, keep under 0.5 lbs/week
Progress Timeline
Now
Starting Point
Beginning the program
155 lbs
Week 4
Early Progress
First visible changes, habits forming
151 lbs
Week 8
Midway Check
Phase 1A midpoint review
147 lbs
Week 11–13
Phase 1A Complete
First major goal reached
144 lbs
Week 16
Phase 1B Progress
Deep cut — nearly there
141 lbs
Week 17–20
Phase 1B Complete
Target body composition reached
139 lbs
Week 36+
Phase 2 Peak
Lean bulk complete — best shape yet
148–152 lbs